The final round of Premier League fixtures can sometimes feel underwhelming.
This time, Arsenal have secured their first title in 22 years following Manchester City’s 1-1 draw away to Bournemouth. The race for Champions League qualification is almost over, and two of the three relegation spots were decided weeks ago.
How the League Table Looks Before the Final Day
Here is how the league table is looking before the season concludes.
The positions with relegation attached are almost all sewn up. The only real games of note see Tottenham Hotspur hosting Everton and West Ham United hosting Leeds United — in a fight for 17th place to stay in the division.
Realistically, a point would secure Spurs’ survival, owing to their far superior goal difference. If West Ham win, their 39 points would be the highest tally for the division’s 18th-placed finishers since Blackpool in 2010-11.
Only once has a club gone down with more points since the turn of the century; ironically, West Ham themselves in 2002-03 (41 points).
The Congestion in Mid-Table
The current Premier League season has been competitive. There is little to choose between many teams.
Previous years have either seen runaway league leaders or a notable selection of sides cut adrift at the bottom. This time things have remained tighter, with a notably congested mid-table as three points separate eighth-place Chelsea from Fulham in 13th.
The statistical evidence supports this when looking at the standard deviation — denoting the spread of a dataset — of points after 37 games across the past seven seasons. The current campaign has the smallest (15.6 SD) since 2019-20.
Potential Final League Positions
That mid-table congestion is particularly striking when looking at the potential league finishes across all teams after the final game of the season.
Based on the remaining fixtures, possible positions can be mapped out, providing the highest or lowest place for each side. Points are the most important factor, but if necessary, goal difference is also accounted for within the final league standings.
- Aside from Arsenal, second-placed City and Manchester United in third, the remaining 17 teams have the opportunity to move at least one place in the table.
- Many of these shifts are only one or two places.
- Six clubs could be in one of six potential positions when the full-time whistles blow.
Chelsea, Brentford and Sunderland could finish as high as seventh or as low as 12th, while Newcastle United, Everton and Fulham could finish as high as ninth or as low as 14th.
Accounting for the Champions League, Europa League and UEFA Conference League, there are still six teams who are fighting for a European spot of some kind.