The UK’s weather may turn a little more changeable during the second half of summer, with spells of rain featuring in some long-range forecasts. There is also a high chance that temperatures will remain largely above average during late July and August, and further heatwaves cannot be ruled out.
The season so far has been notable for its heat, with a number of records broken, including some which date back to the notorious summer of 1976.
Summer’s Unprecedented Heat and Dry Conditions
The summer of 2026 has already been extraordinary. A late-spring heatwave that set a new May temperature record was followed by another heatwave in June, and a third in July which has lasted for two weeks in places. A new UK June temperature record of 37.7C was recorded at Lingwood, Norfolk, surpassing the previous record of 35.6C from 1976.
A lack of rain has also been a big part of summer, with some places in southern England seeing no measurable rain for more than four weeks. Hosepipe bans are in force for millions of households and dry vegetation has provided fuel for wildfires to burn in a number of areas. More than 2,700 people may have died in exceptional May and June heatwaves in England and Wales.
Evolving Forecasts for Late Summer
Current trends suggest a chance of more changeable weather during the second half of summer. However, the signals from computer weather models are rather mixed, meaning there is a lot of uncertainty.
The latest sub-seasonal forecast from DTN, the weather data supplier, suggests that areas of low pressure will feature more prominently over the next couple of weeks, especially for Scotland and Northern Ireland. This would mean an increase in wet weather. However, the Azores high, a semi-permanent large area of high pressure over the North Atlantic which can block weather fronts from reaching the UK, is likely to be close by. This will keep things drier further south, although not necessarily completely so.
Temperatures are most likely to remain above the seasonal norm, especially in England and Wales where further hot spells or heatwaves are possible into early August.
Met Office Outlook and Continuing Uncertainty
The latest Met Office long range forecast hints at similar conditions, suggesting that "the influence of high pressure may wane somewhat" during the final part of July. This would mean an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity, initially in the north of the UK but with rain eventually spreading southwards at times. The Met Office forecast also suggests a changeable start to August, but with above-average temperatures and the chance of further hot spells.
Long-range forecasting is fraught with uncertainty. The behaviour of our chaotic atmosphere generally becomes harder to predict the further into the future you gaze. Forecasters are looking for overall trends rather than day-by-day detail, and at the moment those trends look rather unclear.
Whatever your plans for the rest of the summer, you can always keep up to date with the latest forecasts on the BBC Weather app.