West Ham and Tottenham are fighting to avoid relegation from the Premier League with only two games left. The London clubs are separated by two points, with West Ham in 18th and Spurs in 17th.
Nottingham Forest and Leeds have already secured their survival. This means that either West Ham or Spurs will join Wolves and Burnley in the Championship next season.
Opta’s Prediction: Spurs Likely to Survive
Opta’s predicted table, based on 10,000 simulations, suggests Spurs are more likely to stay up. Opta gives Spurs a relegation chance of 19.54 per cent, while West Ham’s chance stands at 80.46 per cent.
At the start of the season, Spurs had a 13.44 per cent chance of relegation, and West Ham had a 21.73 per cent chance.
West Ham’s relegation probability rose to 89.64 per cent in January after a nine-game winless run. Spurs were then 13 points ahead of West Ham, with a relegation chance of only 0.22 per cent.
How Form Affected Relegation Odds
Spurs then began a 15-game winless run, causing their relegation probability to climb in February. It surpassed West Ham’s in April, but a major swing occurred earlier this month.
Spurs’ form improved under Roberto De Zerbi, while West Ham suffered defeats against Brentford and Arsenal.
Opta now predicts Spurs will finish with 40 points, just above West Ham’s expected total of 39. This essentially predicts Spurs will survive by drawing both of their games, with West Ham predicted to win one and lose one.
Upcoming Fixtures: Away Day Challenges
Both teams face difficult away games next.
West Ham are away to Newcastle, while Spurs travel to Chelsea.
West Ham have won two of their last four games at St James’ Park, including a 2-0 victory last term. Spurs have not managed as much at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League.
West Ham beat Newcastle 3-1 at the London Stadium in November.
Their next games could be pivotal, with West Ham away to Newcastle, live on Sky Sports on Sunday, before Spurs make the short trip to Chelsea, live on Sky Sports on Tuesday.