Palmeiras will host Cruzeiro in a Brasileirão match. The game is scheduled for Saturday, 16 May, at 21:00 (Brasília time) at the Allianz Parque.
Palmeiras’ Strong Defence
Palmeiras come into the match as favourites, riding a five-game unbeaten streak. Cruzeiro, sitting in 11th place, will aim to surprise the home side, especially after securing four victories in their previous five Brasileirão fixtures.
Palmeiras’ defensive record stands out, having conceded only 12 goals this year, averaging 0.80 per game. This is the best defensive record in the league. In contrast, Cruzeiro has conceded an average of 1.67 goals per match, totaling 25 goals.
In attacking stats, the teams are closely matched. Cruzeiro holds a slight edge in total shots (12.53 against 12.27) and shots on target (4.60 against 4.53). Palmeiras forces more corners (6.33 against 5.13), suggesting greater pressure in the opponent’s half.
Historical Context and Recent Form
Historically, across 42 encounters, Cruzeiro holds a narrow lead with 16 wins compared to Palmeiras’ 14, with 12 draws. However, in their recent four matches, Palmeiras has gained the upper hand with two wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring five goals to Cruzeiro’s three.
- Palmeiras average possession: 46.75%
- Palmeiras average shots: 16.00
- Palmeiras average corners: 7.25
- Palmeiras average fouls committed: 17.00
Palmeiras has dominated the offensive pressure in direct confrontations, with a clear advantage in shots (16.00 against 9.75) and shots on target (5.25 against 3.25), despite conceding more possession.
Kaio Jorge from Cruzeiro has been a notable performer in these matches, scoring twice in his last three appearances against Palmeiras.
Home Advantage for Palmeiras
Palmeiras has a strong home record this season, with six wins, one draw, and no losses. They are currently on a 16-game unbeaten run overall. Given Palmeiras’ solid defence and Cruzeiro’s inconsistency away from home, a victory for Palmeiras without conceding appears statistically likely.
The odds favour Palmeiras at 1.66. Palmeiras is unbeaten at the Allianz Parque in 16 matches, and Cruzeiro has not won away against Palmeiras since 2018, with five consecutive visits ending without a victory. The estimated probability of a Palmeiras victory is 53.8%.
A Tight Match Expected
The data suggests a closely contested game. Historically, the average between the teams is 2.0 goals per match, and their most recent encounter finished 0-0. Considering Palmeiras has the best defensive record in the Brasileirão (12 goals conceded in 15 matches), a game with few goals is anticipated.
Andreas Pereira leads the league in assists this season, with ten in 15 games. He is responsible for Palmeiras’ set pieces, having taken 68 corners this year.
The expectation is for a match with few goals.