The 2024-25 college basketball season saw the NCAA officially incorporate Wins Above Bubble (WAB) into the selection process for the NCAA Tournament.
WAB is a results-based metric that allows for the comparison of teams that played vastly different schedules. It is closely correlated with selection into the field of 68.
WAB as a Tournament Predictor
A year ago, the 40s in WAB proved to be the chopping block for at-large consideration.
West Virginia was the best team left out with a No. 43 WAB ranking, and Xavier was the worst team to get in with a No. 49 WAB ranking.
Miami (Ohio) suffered its first loss in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday but remains a “lock” in CBS Sports Bracketology heading into Selection Sunday because its WAB ranking is 37th. With a WAB score of 1.70, the RedHawks are recognised for having nearly two more wins against their schedule than the average bubble team would.
Teams on the Bubble
Every team in the top 40 of WAB is considered a lock entering Friday’s action, except for any team that could still slip out of the top 40 based on conference tournament performance. The only team fitting that bill is Saint Louis, which enters the day at No. 39 in WAB as it prepares to open Atlantic 10 Tournament action against George Washington. A loss would drop the Billikens into the 40s, leaving them as a non-lock entering Selection Sunday.
Here is a look at 39-50 in WAB entering Friday’s action:
- 39. Saint Louis | plays Friday
- 40. Texas A&M*
- 41. Missouri*
- 42. VCU | plays Friday
- 43. NC State*
- 44. Auburn*
- 45. SMU*
- 46. Texas*
- 47. Oklahoma | plays Friday
- 48. McNeese | clinched automatic bid
- 49. San Diego State | plays Friday
- 50. New Mexico | plays Friday
*eliminated from conference tournament
Locks, Almost There, Bubble, and Longshots
Here are the teams considered locks to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament, alongside those that are “almost there”, “on the bubble” and “longshot”.
Locks: Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson
Almost there: NC State
Bubble: SMU
Longshot: Virginia Tech, Stanford, Cal
NC State’s Tournament Chances
NC State really is “almost there”.
The odds of the Wolfpack getting left out when the bubble is so mushy feel slim. The only hesitation stems from how flimsy their resume is upon a close inspection. Their best road wins over Clemson and SMU depreciated, and a 24-point beatdown of North Carolina comes with an asterisk since UNC was missing stars Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. A tally of 11 Quad 1/2 victories is great, but there are zero victories against teams ranked in the top 30 of the NET. By comparison, Auburn has four such victories, and Texas has three (including a head-to-head win over NC State). A side-by-side “scrub” of the Wolfpack against those teams in the committee room might be unkind.
Other teams in contention include Saint Louis and VCU.
Almost there: Saint Louis. Bubble: VCU
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s latest bracket at the Bracketology hub.
This exercise pertains to potential at-large teams. Check out who has clinched an automatic bid here.