The 2026 MLB Draft is set to begin on Saturday at 1 p.m. ET, with considerable intrigue surrounding the Chicago White Sox’s first overall selection. It remains unclear who the White Sox are going to select with the first pick, a decision that is expected to have ripple effects everywhere from pick No. 2 on down.
This final mock draft, published just before the actual event, suggests that the draft’s “Big Three” prospects are all highly likely to be chosen within the first three picks. For the moment, Grady Emerson is projected to land here as the No. 1 pick, although a surprise pick is considered possible by some.
White Sox Weighing Top Talent for No. 1
By all accounts, the Chicago White Sox have narrowed down their potential first overall selection to three specific players: Grady Emerson, Roch Cholowsky, and Vahn Lackey. All three prospects are described as good choices, and sources indicate that none is likely to come at much of a discount in terms of their signing bonus deals.
Reports this week suggest a potential shift in the White Sox’s focus, with sources indicating the club was “more engaged” with Cholowsky. This development is open to interpretation; it is considered entirely possible that the White Sox have wanted Cholowsky all along and are strategically creating the illusion of competition to negotiate a more favourable bonus agreement with him. Alternatively, the increased engagement could simply mean they now prefer Emerson.
Ripple Effects and Other Teams’ Preferences
The decision at the top of the draft board is expected to have significant ripple effects on subsequent picks. Several clubs in the early rounds are reportedly eyeing specific talents, with various preferences and rumoured strategies in play.
For example, sources suggest the Rays are particularly keen on securing Grady Emerson. Should Emerson be unavailable when their pick comes, they would likely opt for Vahn Lackey over Roch Cholowsky. Rumours circulating about the Rays potentially cutting a deal with an alternative prospect have reportedly died off in the last week, suggesting their focus remains on these key individuals.
The Twins are understood to be prepared to select Roch Cholowsky if he is still on the board. They would probably also consider Vahn Lackey as a strong option. However, there is reported uncertainty regarding their interest in Grady Emerson; in a scenario where both Lackey and Cholowsky are already off the board, the Twins may instead turn their attention to Drew Burress or Jackson Flora.
Meanwhile, the Giants are reportedly interested in either Grady Emerson or Roch Cholowsky, but do not expect to secure either player. In that case, it is likely they would choose Jacob Lombard or Eric Booth Jr. over Jackson Flora, although Jackson Flora was still mentioned as a possibility for them in reports on Thursday.
First Round Contenders Beyond the Top Picks
Further down the first round, the Pirates are not expected to see any of the “Big Three” prospects fall to their pick. Their potential decision set would probably include Jackson Flora, Eric Booth Jr., and one of the college bats like Drew Burress. They are not believed to be in contention for Jacob Lombard or Justin Lebron, according to reports.
Reports suggest a potential shift in strategy for the Royals, who could consider a high school bat. However, the latest word from Kansas City indicates an interest in college bats here, potentially attempting to strike a deal and exceed the recommended slot value at pick 30. Previously, the Royals had been linked with USC left-hander Mason Edwards at a discounted rate. Brian Bridges, their scouting director, has a historical preference for high-upside players such as Eric Booth Jr. or Jacob Lombard. In this particular scenario, Drew Burress or Tyler Bell would represent the top college bat remaining for their consideration.
The Orioles are reportedly keen on Eric Booth Jr. They might also consider selecting Drew Burress. However, they are understood to have no realistic hope of acquiring Jackson Flora, based on current projections.
Draft Trends: College Talent Dominates Early
Regarding the overall landscape and trends for the 2026 MLB Draft, the initial selections are expected to be heavily skewed towards college players. The top 10 picks are anticipated to be very college heavy, and this preference for collegiate talent may extend throughout the entire top 20 selections.
Following these initial rounds, a significant run on high school players of all types is anticipated. This indicates a strategic split in focus for teams as the draft progresses beyond the very top prospects.