Josh Naylor, the Seattle Mariners’ first baseman, is under the microscope after a disappointing start to the season. Signed to a five-year, $92.5 million deal, Naylor’s performance is now seen as a factor holding the team back.
Naylor’s Dismal Start
Naylor’s current form is a cause for concern. He is currently batting .102/.197/.102 with a .299 OPS and a -5 wRC+. His wRC+ is third-worst in baseball, and his OPS and fWAR trail only Marcell Ozuna.
The question is, what’s behind this slump? His strikeout percentage is consistent with his career averages, and his walk rate has even increased. Batted ball data appears similar to previous years, with a slight decrease in fly balls.
Power Outage
A major issue is Naylor’s lack of power. He has zero home runs and no doubles this year. His ISO is .000, tying him for the worst in MLB.
However, his expected slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant, is .338. There’s a discrepancy between his wOBA (.138) and xwOBA (.273). His expected batting average is .225, lower than his .295 average in 2025 and .308 average in 2023.
The Verdict
The recommendation is to remain patient. Data suggests Naylor’s struggles are more a result of bad luck than poor play. His career history indicates this is likely a temporary setback.
If his performance doesn’t improve, further evaluation will be necessary.