Jackson LaCombe is proving to be a player capable of shutting down Connor McDavid in their series. For any Edmonton Oilers playoff series, stopping McDavid is as important as McDavid performing well. In Anaheim, Jackson LaCombe is tasked with stopping him, and he’s a big reason the Anaheim Ducks are close to advancing.
LaCombe’s Rise to No. 1 Defenceman
LaCombe’s stock has steadily risen since his breakout 2024-25 season, earning him an eight-year, $72 million extension last summer. After a difficult rookie season, LaCombe improved, scoring 43 points while positively impacting the game despite playing difficult minutes. His puck-moving ability improved in all three zones as he developed into a legitimate No. 1 defenseman. LaCombe’s growth continued this season, leading to an invitation to join Team USA in Milan.
With 58 points this season and continued excellence at five-on-five, LaCombe was a star in the making, and the playoffs are where stars can make a name for themselves. That’s what we’re seeing from LaCombe so far, and not just because he has eight points in five games. He is specifically impacting the best player in the world.
McDavid’s Play Against LaCombe
Over McDavid’s past three playoffs, his expected goals rates were 60 percent last season, 63 percent before that and 58 percent before that. In each playoff run, he generated at least 3 goals-per-60 and 3.25 expected goals-per-60 offensively. This year, he had a 56 percent expected goals rate, 3.29 goals-per-60 and 3.61 expected goals per 60.
That has mostly continued whenever LaCombe has been on the bench during this series. While the Oilers only have one goal in those minutes (1.81 goals-per-60), the chances are there (2.99 expected goals per 60) and McDavid is tilting the ice heavily with 65 percent of expected goals. Classic McDavid.
The problem is that McDavid has only been on the ice for 33 non-LaCombe minutes. In the 51 minutes against LaCombe, it’s been an entirely different story.
Impact of LaCombe on McDavid’s Performance
Against LaCombe, the Oilers are only generating 1.62 expected goals per 60 with McDavid — roughly half of what he would normally put up. That’s led to a dismal 44 percent expected goals rate with the Ducks up 4-2 on the scoresheet.
- McDavid’s xG rate against LaCombe: 44 percent
- Oilers’ expected goals per 60 with McDavid against LaCombe: 1.62
- McDavid’s non-LaCombe minutes on ice: 33
Some of that may be related to an injury McDavid sustained in Game 2. His worst game against LaCombe was Game 3 (0-3, 22 percent expected goals) and he did get back on track in Game 5 (1-0, 60 percent expected goals).
Maybe that means the tide is turning. Maybe.
It’s also worth noting that during the three regular-season matchups between these two teams, LaCombe also got the better of McDavid, leading to the exact same expected goals rate for the Oilers captain: 44 percent.