The Formula 1 schedule is facing potential disruption as the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia Grands Prix come under threat due to the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran.
The two countries are among the Gulf states targeted by retaliatory missiles launched by Iran in response to US-Israeli air strikes.
Races Under Threat
Bahrain is set to host a race from 10-12 April, with Saudi Arabia’s event in Jeddah a week later.
Missiles have reportedly hit hotels and civilian and energy infrastructure, as well as targeting American bases in the countries.
The US naval base in Manama, Bahrain, has already been hit by Iranian missiles. The base is situated in the Juffair area, where F1 personnel often stay.
The Saudi Arabian race is near an oil refinery which was the target of a missile attack four years ago.
F1’s Response and Contingency Plans
F1 released a statement saying that the next three races are in Australia, China and Japan, and that the Middle East races are “not for a number of weeks”.
The statement continued: “As always we closely monitor any situation like this and work closely with relevant authorities and will always prioritise the safety and security of all those in the sport.”
A decision on whether the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia races can proceed needs to be made soon, as there are only two weeks before equipment needs to be transported by sea to the countries.
Financial and Logistical Challenges
Cancelling the races could have a significant financial impact, as the fees paid by the two countries add up to well over $100m. These fees would not be paid if the races are cancelled.
Rescheduling the races also presents challenges, as the F1 calendar is congested and there are no obvious places where they could fit.
In the event the races do not take place, there is unlikely to be a replacement, which would shorten the season to 22 grands prix.
While holding a race at Portimao in Portugal, Imola in Italy or Istanbul in Turkey have been mentioned, these options are not considered realistic due to time constraints.
The possibility of holding a second race in Japan after its grand prix has also been discussed, but this is not said to be an option.
Decision Timeline and Potential Outcomes
- F1 has no more than two weeks to decide if the Bahrain and Saudi Arabia races can go ahead.
- A full ceasefire and peace talks may still not be enough to guarantee the races can happen.
- Cancelling the races would mean a financial hit of over $100m.
If the war is still ongoing when F1 needs to decide, it seems unlikely that the races can happen.
Even if there is a full ceasefire and peace talks, F1 cannot predict the reaction of outside groups.
That could mean that the risk of holding the races is considered too great even if the war has officially ended by the time a decision has to be made.
Oscar Piastri of McLaren won last year’s race in Bahrain.
The F1 calendar is congested, making rescheduling difficult.