The final day of the Premier League season is known for producing goals.
One football betting expert is offering insight ahead of the final weekend.
Final Day Goal Fest?
If you were backing the over 1.5 goals line in the last 110 final day games, the strike rate would be at 86 per cent with the overall goals per-game average at 3.36.
In five of those 11 campaigns, 36 goals or more were scored on this final day and that’s relevant because Sky Bet do offer that as a market on their specials page.
They are dangling 3/1 about the prospect which has a great balance of being a really fun bet to follow and being on the right side of the value fence.
Burnley’s Fate
There is a niche group of people, including one football betting expert, who are holding a Burnley to finish bottom ticket at 3/1 and will be following every moment of one particular game.
Wolves have to win or they’re propping up the entire Premier League table come 6pm on Sunday.
Player Props and Card Markets
For a player prop, the shots averages rise by about 2.1 per game on the final day based on 10 years of data and Yerson Mosquera has a very healthy shots output for a centre-back.
He’s hit the two or more line in two of his last three starts. It’s 10/11 with Sky Bet to go in again.
Historically, the final day produces fewer cards than any other round of Premier League fixtures. Across recent seasons, the average total drops to just 2.8 cards per game – around 0.7 lower than the standard rate. And when you layer in these very specific circumstances, the case for a low-card affair becomes extremely strong.
Under 1.5 total match cards at Evens with Sky Bet sounds skinny on paper but context is king. This has all the makings of a referee’s easiest afternoon of the season.
Final Day Focus
This game should help that bet go close in what should be a goal heavy game where Brighton need to win and hope that Bournemouth lose to Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa lose at Man City and Liverpool beat Brentford to have a chance of qualifying in sixth for the Champions League.
This one probably won’t be troubling the Super Sunday producers when plotting where the drama will be on Sunday.
Other Matches
Palace are preparing for the biggest game in their history on Wednesday night with a first-ever European final looming.
The same can be said for Arsenal.
The title has already been secured. The champagne has been sprayed. And with a Champions League final just around the corner, Mikel Arteta’s priority will simply be maintaining rhythm without inviting unnecessary risk.
That usually creates the perfect storm for a strangely passive football match.
Backing Marco Silva’s team at this stage of the season has become a dangerous game.
Fulham’s April and M