The Houston Astros’ starting rotation choices appear to have backfired, with their pitching woes making their decision to let Framber Valdez leave look avoidable.
It’s become clear the Astros should have brought in a veteran starting pitcher over the offseason, and specifically, one they already knew well: Framber Valdez.
Valdez’s Performance in Detroit Exposes Astros’ Error
Valdez has since joined Detroit and, aside from one poor outing against the Minnesota Twins, has performed well this season. The veteran has made seven starts and pitched 40 1/3 innings with a 3.35 ERA. This production would be valuable in Houston’s current rotation.
Astros’ Financial Constraints and Missed Opportunities
Retaining Valdez would have been difficult, but the situation didn’t need to unfold this way. The Astros dropping the ball significantly contributed to Valdez’s departure, and the club may now regret their actions.
Dana Brown is likely to receive criticism for the pitching staff’s struggles, but the blame isn’t solely his. Jim Crane’s insistence on staying under the luxury tax made it challenging for Brown to accommodate a deal for Valdez.
This was a self-imposed restriction, as exceeding the tax was an option. With different choices, the Astros could have had Valdez while only slightly exceeding the tax line.
Contractual Details and Extension Failures
Valdez’s contract with the Tigers includes opt-outs, is short-term, and has a high average annual value (AAV). His AAV is essentially $38.33 million. He signed late in the winter because he was seeking a long-term deal that never materialised.
Had the Astros offered a long-term deal, they could have secured him for a lower AAV and a reduced tax bill. Deferred money could have further improved their financial position.
By not securing Valdez, the Astros committed at least $18 million to Tatsuya Imai, an investment that appears increasingly poor as he struggles in his rehab starts.
The team also never offered Valdez an extension. By last year, it was too late, given his established status. However, a proactive approach years ago could have secured him.
The starters they did extend, Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier, have proven to be bad investments. The organisation is paying $29.8 million this season to those two pitchers, funds that could be better allocated.
Impact of Valdez on the Astros’ Roster
Valdez alone wouldn’t solve all of the Astros’ problems. However, his presence would help them manage the Hunter Brown injury more effectively. When Brown returns, he, Spencer Arrighetti and Valdez could form a strong top-three starters.
Unfortunately, Houston…