Gerrit Cole is scheduled to make his 2026 season debut for the New York Yankees in a game against their American League East Division rivals, the Tampa Bay Rays, on Friday night. Cole, a former Cy Young Award winner, is returning after Tommy John surgery. The Yankees are planning to limit his pitch count to around 85 to 90.
AL East Showdown at Yankee Stadium
The Rays, who lead the AL East with a 33-15 record and are on a four-game winning streak, have a 14-10 record on the road this season. The Yankees, currently second in the division with a 30-21 record, are 16-8 at home. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:05 p.m. ET.
New York is a -147 favourite on the money line. The over/under is 7.5. A SportsLine computer model has simulated the game 10,000 times.
Betting Model Favours the Over
After 10,000 simulations, the model projects the game will go Over 7.5 combined runs. The Over has occurred in seven of the past 10 head-to-head meetings, with one push. It has also hit in seven of the past nine Tampa Bay games, and in four of the past six New York games.
The Over has hit in eight of the past 15 New York games when the line is between 8 and 8.5 at games played at Yankee Stadium.
Projected Player Performances
SportsLine’s model projects total bases of 1.5 or more for several Rays players: Chandler Simpson, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Yandy Diaz. The Yankees are projected to get over 1.5 total bases or more from Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm and Paul Goldschmidt. Cole is projected to go into the sixth inning and strike out 5.3 while giving up 2.5 earned runs in his return.
The model projects 10.2 combined runs. The Over hits in 64% of simulations.
Money Line Value Identified
The model also indicates that one side of the money line has all the value. The SportsLine Projection Model is on a 12-1 run on all top-rated MLB picks, entering Week 9 of the MLB season.
The model also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit.
The Rays are 14-10 on the road this season, while the Yankees are 16-8 on their home field in 2026.