As the Thunder prepare to host the Spurs in a decisive Game 7, the series hangs in the balance. The winner takes all, forging their path into the NBA Finals.
Rather than dissecting individual matchups, the focus is on highlighting players with the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
Identifying Game Leaders in Spurs vs. Thunder
Throughout this series, there’s been a strong correlation when assessing game leaders. For instance, only Victor Wembanyama of San Antonio and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of OKC have topped the scoring charts. And they only did so in games their teams won.
The Spurs’ dominant 27-point victory in Game 6 suggests the Thunder will give them their undivided attention.
San Antonio has struggled to string together strong performances in consecutive games. While OKC is favoured, Gilgeous-Alexander’s odds of -157 don’t offer much value as top scorer.
Targeting the 3-point market presents a better opportunity, where even the favourite, Devin Vassell (+338), offers odds better than 3-to-1.
Vassell has been San Antonio’s most reliable 3-point threat in the series, shooting 42.6% from beyond the arc. Even in the games the Spurs lost, he still managed to shoot 11-for-27 (40.7%). He’s also coming off a 4-for-7 performance in Game 6.
Vassell has an implied value of 18.4%, but projections estimate he’ll finish first in 19.8% of simulations.
OKC’s Alex Caruso has the highest percentage of first-place simulations.
Caruso is 10-for-17 (58.9%) from deep in the three games the Thunder won. He also knocked down eight 3-pointers in a losing effort in Game 1.
Based on his performance in the series, Caruso wins in 23.4% of simulations, suggesting his odds should be closer to +327. However, DraftKings prices him at +620.
Picks for 3-Point Leader
The right balance is needed to attack this 3-point market with a fairly conservative option and one that’s a bit of a long shot.
- Pick: 3-Point Leader: Devin Vassell (+338)
- Pick: 3-Point Leader: Alex Caruso (+620)
Adjustments Expected from the Thunder
This series has been all about adjustments, and Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault is expected to have a plan to slow Wembanyama down.
One adjustment Daigneault made early in the series was using a more physical player, like Isaiah Hartenstein, to guard Wembanyama.
Hartenstein can use his 250-pound frame to lean on Wembanyama and wear him down, or force him to start farther from the basket.
At times, Wembanyama has operated more on the perimeter.
With adjustments expected, the Thunder will be looking to counter the Spurs’ strengths. The focus will be on slowing down key players like Wembanyama.