The Premier League relegation battle has narrowed to a two-team fight between Tottenham and West Ham. With three games left, their upcoming fixtures could determine who faces the drop.
Spurs Escape the Drop Zone
Back-to-back wins for Spurs has pulled them out of the bottom three, where West Ham currently reside. By the time Tottenham face Leeds on Monday night they could be back in the drop zone.
West Ham are currently one point adrift of Spurs. To move out of the relegation zone, the Hammers would have to beat title favourites Arsenal.
Mathematically, nothing can be decided in this next round of fixtures, but if Spurs open up a four-point gap, then Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will find themselves with very little room for manoeuvre and relying on two slip ups from their rivals in their final two games.
Shifting Probabilities
After the last round of games, there was a big swing in the relegation probabilities. West Ham lost 3-0 at Brentford before Spurs won 2-1 at Aston Villa.
Opta’s supercomputer is currently projecting West Ham as having more than an 80 per cent chance of going down, while Spurs are at 19.3 per cent. At the beginning of May, before the win at Villa, Spurs were deemed to have a 59 per cent chance of being relegated.
West Ham’s chances of going down have more than doubled since then.
- West Ham are 1/4 to be relegated.
- Spurs are 3/1 to be relegated.
Other Teams Still in Danger
There is still an outside chance of Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace or Leeds United slipping back into the bottom three. Opta is currently projecting them as having less than a one per cent chance of going down.
Mathematically, 13th-placed Newcastle could still be relegated, but it would require them losing every game and West Ham winning every game as well as a goal difference swing of 17.
Most bookies are offering odds of 125/1 for Leeds and Forest to be relegated, while Palace are up at 150/1.
This has become one of the most competitive Premier League relegation battles of the last two decades.