The Toronto Raptors’ loss to the Sacramento Kings has impacted their postseason outlook.
Playoff Probability Dips After Kings Defeat
The Raptors’ inconsistency has made it difficult to predict their postseason fate. Some have called the Toronto Raptors’ loss to the tanktastic Sacramento Kings their worst defeat of the year.
Before losses to the Pistons and Kings, the Raptors had about an 80 percent chance of finishing fifth or sixth in the Eastern Conference and avoiding the Play-In Tournament, according to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities. Ahead of Thursday’s games, those chances were down to 52.8 percent. The drop was caused by losing to the Kings, with Precious Achiuwa and DeMar DeRozan playing a part.
Remaining Schedule Presents Challenges
With six games left, the Raptors are in seventh place in the East heading into Friday’s games. Two of those are at home against the Miami Heat. The Raptors won twice in Miami earlier in the season, when the Heat were less healthy than they are now.
The Raptors also have games against the Boston Celtics and the New York Knicks, against whom they are a combined 0-7 with a minus–113 point differential. Perhaps the Knicks will have nothing to play for by the penultimate game of the season.
And then the Raptors play Memphis this Friday and Brooklyn to end the season on April 12.
Tiebreaker Scenarios Assessed
With six games to go, it seems like a good time to go over the many possibilities that face the Raptors (42-34).
- Practically speaking, the Raptors will win any two-team tiebreaker except against the 76ers.
- The Raptors split the season series against Philadelphia (42-34), but the 76ers would win on the strength of their superior divisional record.
- The Raptors beat the Hawks (44-33) and Magic (40-36) in their series this season.
They tied the Hornets (41-36) and could still tie the Heat (40-37) if Miami beats the Raptors twice next week, but the Raptors will have the superior conference record over both, which is the next tiebreaker.
Things get more complicated in the event of multi-team ties. Until the Raptors lost on Wednesday, a three-way tie for the fifth, sixth and seventh spots between the Raptors, Sixers and Hawks was looking like a realistic possibility. Atlanta would win the Southeast Division in that scenario, so it would win the tiebreaker and finish fifth.