Events in Greece could influence which Scottish Premiership team bypasses the Champions League qualifiers. The drop in Scotland’s coefficient means title winners Celtic and runners-up Rangers both had to enter the Champions League at the qualifying stage this season. Heart of Midlothian, Rangers and Celtic are all chasing the title and the other spot in the Champions League qualifiers for next season.
How Rangers Could Benefit
If Hearts or Celtic finish top, they will be one of four league champions placed in the play-off round next season. However, if Rangers secure their first title since 2021, Danny Rohl’s side could qualify directly for the league phase – and it would be thanks to Olympiakos. Or, more precisely, to AEK Athens.
Since 2024, Uefa has given club coefficients over the latest five-year period an important role via something called “title-holder rebalancing”. Should the Champions League winners have also qualified for the league phase via their domestic league position, “the club with the best individual coefficient of all the domestic champions involved in qualifying will enter the league phase directly instead of the original round they had qualified for”.
Last season’s beneficiaries were Olympiakos, with European champions Paris St-Germain having already qualified as French title winners.
Olympiakos’s League Position
Olympiakos finished seven points behind Athens neighbours AEK in the Greek Super League last season, but this season the positions look likely to be reversed. A 1-0 defeat at home to an AEK side leaves Olympiakos five points adrift of the leaders.
Jose Luis Mendilibar’s side have slipped to third behind PAOK Salonica. There are five games left of the title play-offs, during which the top four play one another twice and statisticians suggest Olympiakos only have a 16% chance of securing a 49th domestic title.
Champions League Qualification Scenarios
Olympiakos are again the club with the most coefficient points from countries outside the top six in Europe, but if they fail to retain that title, Rangers are next in line for that spot straight into the Champions League’s league phase.
- Rangers drew with Olympiakos in Greece in the Europa League in 2024.
- Former Hearts left-back James Penrice was back in the starting line-up for AEK after a two-game absence.
- Former Celtic left-back Greg Taylor was an unused substitute on the bench for Panathinaikos when they drew 0-0 at home to PAOK Salonica.
It has been a steady stream of bad news for Scotland’s club sides in European competition in the past couple of seasons, but events in Greece over the weekend could make it less of a tragedy for one of the three potential Scottish Premiership champions.