The Premier League season is drawing to a close, with the final round of fixtures set to determine the fate of several clubs. While some positions are already decided, the remaining games hold significant importance, particularly for those vying for European qualification and aiming to avoid the drop.
Tightness at the Top and Bottom
This Premier League season has been marked by its competitive nature, with a notably congested mid-table. Statistical evidence supports this, with the current campaign having the smallest standard deviation of points since 2019-20. Three points separate eighth-place Chelsea from Fulham in 13th.
The positions with peril attached are almost all sewn up, with the only real games of note on Sunday coming with Tottenham Hotspur hosting Everton and West Ham United hosting Leeds United — in a fight for 17th place to stay in the division.
Realistically, a point would secure Spurs’ survival, owing to their far superior goal difference. If West Ham do win, their 39 points would be the highest tally for the division’s 18th-placed finishers since Blackpool in 2010-11.
- The current campaign has the smallest standard deviation (15.6 SD) of points since 2019-20.
- West Ham could reach 39 points, which would be the highest tally for an 18th-placed team since 2010-11.
- West Ham themselves went down with 42 points in 2002-03.
Final Day Scenarios: Who Can Move Where?
Based on the remaining fixtures, the potential league finishes are varied across the board. Aside from Arsenal, second-placed City and Manchester United in third, the remaining 17 teams have the opportunity to move at least one place in the table.
Many of these shifts are only one or two places, but six clubs could be in one of six potential positions when the full-time whistles blow tomorrow afternoon.
Chelsea, Brentford and Sunderland could finish as high as seventh or as low as 12th, while Newcastle United, Everton and Fulham could finish as high as ninth or as low as 14th.
European Spots Still Up For Grabs
There are still six teams who are fighting for a European spot of some kind on Sunday.
Accounting for the Champions League, Europa League and UEFA Conference League.
The final day of the season promises excitement as teams battle to secure their desired positions in the Premier League table.