The Premier League relegation battle has narrowed to a two-team fight. With three games remaining, it appears West Ham and Tottenham will be the final team relegated this season.
Relegation Odds Favour West Ham
West Ham are currently in the drop zone, one point behind Tottenham. Their next match is against Arsenal, while Tottenham face Leeds United. Both matches will be live on Sky Sports.
West Ham would have to beat Arsenal to overtake their rivals. A repeat of their defeat at Brentford could prove fatal.
Mathematically, the next round of fixtures will not decide anything. However, if Spurs open up a four-point gap, West Ham will have very little room for manoeuvre, relying on two slip ups from their rivals in their final two games.
Supercomputer Predictions
The last round of games saw West Ham lose 3-0 at Brentford, while Spurs won 2-1 at Aston Villa. This resulted in a big swing in the relegation probabilities.
Opta’s supercomputer is currently projecting West Ham as having more than an 80 per cent chance of going down. Spurs are at 19.3 per cent. This is a turnaround from the previous week.
At the beginning of May, before the win at Villa, Spurs were deemed to have a 59 per cent chance of being relegated. West Ham’s chances of going down have more than doubled since then.
Bookmakers’ View
The bookies also consider West Ham to be favourites to go down heading into this weekend’s games. The Hammers are 1/4 to be relegated, while you can get 3/1 on Spurs.
There is still an outside chance of Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace or Leeds United slipping back into the bottom three. Opta is currently projecting them as having less than a one per cent chance of going down.
Most bookies are offering odds of 125/1 for Leeds and Forest to be relegated, while Palace are up at 150/1.
Newcastle’s Remote Danger
Mathematically, 13th-placed Newcastle could still be relegated. It would require them losing every game and West Ham winning every game as well as a goal difference swing of 17.
Most bookmakers are not offering odds on Newcastle.
This has become one of the most competitive Premier League relegation battles of the last two decades.