Sweet 16 Matchups Set
The first half of the Elite Eight is now confirmed, with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa having already booked their places. Attention now turns to which teams will join them in the regional finals of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament.
ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf have shared their predictions for every Sweet 16 game, breaking down the crucial elements for each team’s chances of advancing.
Duke vs St. John’s: Keys to Victory
The focus of Rick Pitino’s game plan against Duke will centre on slowing down Cameron Boozer. St. John’s boasts one of college basketball’s elite defenses, but they lack the length and athleticism that has troubled Boozer in the past. Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell will likely shoulder much of the defensive responsibility, with Mitchell potentially tasked with chasing Isaiah Evans.
For St. John’s to advance to the Elite Eight, they need to maintain their improved 3-point shooting. Before the NCAA tournament, they hadn’t made double-digit 3s in a game since Jan. 10. They’ve now achieved this in both tournament games, including 11 against Kansas.
Duke’s path to the Elite Eight relies on capitalising on their advantages: Boozer and their formidable defence. When Duke intensified their defence against TCU and focused on Boozer offensively, they dominated the game. Duke’s defence is the top-ranked unit in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, the Red Storm aren’t ideally suited to cause consistent problems for the Blue Devils.
Borzello predicts a Duke victory, 73-71, while Medcalf forecasts a 77-70 win for Duke.
Michigan vs Alabama: A High-Scoring Affair?
Alabama’s chances against Michigan hinge on their ability to make a high volume of 3-pointers. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempts per game, and 3-point attempt rate. They made 19 3s in a second-round win over Texas Tech.
That proficiency from beyond the arc must continue against Michigan, as scoring consistently at the rim against Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. will be extremely difficult. Defensively, Alabama faces an uphill battle. They have conceded significant scoring totals to good teams, and their defensive efficiency ranks in the middle of the SEC.
The game is expected to be high-scoring and fast-paced. Alabama won’t shy away from a running game.
Borzello predicts Michigan will win 92-83, while Medcalf forecasts a 90-80 victory for Michigan.
Looking Ahead to the Elite Eight
The winners of these Sweet 16 matchups will advance to the Elite Eight, moving one step closer to the Final Four and the national championship.