The first half of the Elite Eight is set with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punching their tickets on Thursday. Attention now turns to the Sweet 16, with experts offering their predictions and analysis.
Duke’s Path to the Elite Eight
Jeff Borzello predicts Duke will win 73-71, while Myron Medcalf forecasts a 77-70 victory for Duke.
For St. John’s to advance to the Elite Eight, Rick Pitino’s game plan will likely centre on slowing down Cameron Boozer. St. John’s boasts one of college basketball’s elite defences, but they lack the length and athleticism that has troubled Boozer at times. Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell will likely bear the defensive responsibility, with Mitchell potentially guarding Isaiah Evans.
Offensively, St. John’s needs to maintain their improved 3-point shooting. They’ve made double-digit 3s in both tournament games, including 11 against Kansas, a feat they hadn’t achieved since January 10. Borzello notes that Duke has two advantages over every team: Boozer and its defence.
Duke’s defence is the top-ranked unit in adjusted defensive efficiency. Borzello suggests the Red Storm aren’t ideally built to consistently trouble the Blue Devils, as they rely heavily on offensive rebounds and free throws, areas where Duke excels at limiting opponents.
Michigan vs. Alabama: A High-Scoring Affair?
Borzello predicts Michigan will win 92-83, while Medcalf forecasts a 90-80 victory for Michigan. Alabama will need to make a barrage of 3s to have any chance of staying close with Michigan. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point attempts per game and 3-point attempt rate.
Alabama made 19 3s in a second-round win over Texas Tech. That has to continue against Michigan, as it will be be extremely difficult to score consistently at the rim against Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. Defensively, it’s going to be an uphill battle. Alabama has given up huge scoring efforts to good teams on multiple occasions, and the Crimson Tide rank in the middle of the pack in the SEC in defensive efficiency.
This game is expected to feature plenty of points and a fast pace.
Keys to Advancing
- Duke: Leverage Boozer’s productivity and maintain defensive intensity.
- St. John’s: Neutralise Boozer and continue strong 3-point shooting.
- Alabama: Rely on a high volume of successful 3-point shots.
The winners will advance to the regional finals of the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament.