Michael McGreevy has been a bright spot for the Cardinals, posting a 2.52 ERA through seven starts. This ranks him 13th in baseball among qualified starters. McGreevy has been providing quality innings for a team that needs it.
Data Suggests Potential Regression
A closer look at the numbers, however, reveals some concerns. Statcast data paints a less optimistic picture. McGreevy’s expected ERA is 6.18, placing him in the 10th percentile. He’s also in the bottom 10th percentile when it comes to expected batting average and expected slugging.
Statcast compares how players are hitting balls off of McGreevy to how players are hitting balls off of every other pitcher in the MLB since 2015. The data suggests McGreevy may be a ‘ticking time bomb’. This would be a blow to any playoff hopes for Cardinals fans.
Low Strikeout Rate a Worry
McGreevy’s strikeout rate, whiff %, and chase % are also cause for concern. He is almost the worst pitcher in baseball in these categories. Batters are not fooled by his arsenal and don’t swing and miss very often. Flyballs against McGreevy are up 10%.
Strengths in Limiting Walks
McGreevy does excel in one key area: walk rate. He is in the 96th percentile in this category. As one coach said, “’em walks is killin’ us.”. McGreevy excels in not beating himself.
It remains to be seen whether McGreevy can continue to outpitch his underlying metrics.