The New York Mets will begin a three-game series against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon.
The Mets have been struggling, having lost their last eight games. The Cubs, in contrast, managed to win two of three in their recent series against the Phillies.
Cubs Favoured at Home
The Cubs are 4-5 at home, while the Mets are 4-6 on the road. Chicago is a -157 favourite on the money line. The over/under is set at 10.5.
Edward Cabrera (1-0, 1.62 ERA) is scheduled to pitch for Chicago, while Kodai Senga (0-2, 7.07 ERA) will start for New York.
Betting Model’s Predictions
A SportsLine projection model simulated the game 10,000 times. The model was profitable last season on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit.
The model has locked in its picks and MLB predictions for this game.
Underdog or Overrun?
The SportsLine model projects the game to go Under 10.5 combined runs. The model projects 9.3 combined runs, with the Under hitting in 66% of simulations. The total has gone Under in four of the Mets’ last six games.
The total has gone Under in five of the Mets’ last five games against an opponent in the National League Central Division. Three of the last four games have been played to the Under for the Mets.
Regarding individual player performance, the model projects more than 1.7 total bases for two New York players, with Francisco Lindor leading the way at 1.88 total bases. Chicago is also projected to have just two players with over 1.7 total bases, with Alex Bregman leading the way at 1.78 total bases.
Money Line Pick Available
The model also indicates that one side of the money line has all the value. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET.