Madison Keys is preparing for a rematch against Stearns at WTA Rome. The two faced off at the same stage of the tournament last year.
Keys’ Clay Court Form and Charleston Semifinal
Keys has a 3-1 record on clay this year. Her best showing was a run to the Charleston semifinal. However, she has not played since Charleston, which raises questions about her match sharpness.
Stearns’ Red Clay Advantage
Stearns has historically thrived on red clay. Her only two WTA tour finals have come on this surface. She beat Janice Tjen in the first round to set up the rematch with Keys.
Stearns owns the head-to-head record against Keys. She is also in better recent rhythm. Rome’s red clay suits her game.
Other WTA Rome Matchups
Day four at WTA Rome sees the end of second-round action. Several compelling players are stepping onto the Foro Italico clay.
Naomi Osaka showed fine form in Madrid before losing to Sabalenka in three sets. She reached the round of 16 with wins over Osorio and Kalinina. Her serve remains her most potent weapon on clay, winning points at a strong clip on the surface, though her return game and movement are still areas she openly admits she is working on.
Lys won her second clay-court match of the season in the first round, defeating Katie Boulter in three sets, needing five match points to seal it. The German showed a good fight, but her clay-court experience at this level is limited. Osaka’s power and serve give her a significant edge in what should be a straightforward contest.
Karolina Muchova has had her best start to a season to date in 2026, going 18-4 and winning a maiden WTA 1000 title. She also reached the Stuttgart final before losing to Rybakina, rising to world No. 11 in the process. She skipped Madrid but arrives to WTA Rome well-rested and with no clay points to defend.
Anastasia Potapova was a Madrid semifinalist and showed she is in strong form, rallying past Galfi in the first round here after dropping the opening set. She will give Muchova a competitive match, but Muchova’s variety of game and dominant head-to-head record on this surface make her the clear pick to advance.
Leylah Fernandez ended a nearly two-year drought without a WTA 1000 quarterfinal by reaching the last eight in Madrid. She had wins over Grabher, Jovic, and Ann Li along the way. She ultimately fell to Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinals, but that run showed a player who has genuinely found her feet on clay this spring.
Masarova came through two qualifying rounds and then defeated Selekhmeteva in the first round. She carries a solid overall record on the surface. Still, she is ranked outside the top 150 and faces a seeded opponent playing some of her best clay tennis in years. Fernandez’s left-handed game, improved consistency, and momentum from Madrid are too much for Masarova to overcome here.
With Stearns in better recent rhythm, her superior timing coming into this match should prove decisive against Keys.