The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers once fought with everything on the line, but their upcoming game at Scotiabank Arena presents a different scenario. The real victory for both teams lies in a loss, a strange situation arising from an unexpected NHL season.
From Playoff Rivals to Lottery Competitors
Both the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs would have done anything to win their Game 7 clash last spring, with a place in the Eastern Conference Final at stake. Now, they are competing for better odds in the draft lottery.
The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions (Florida) and the owners of the league’s longest playoff streak (Toronto) are only competing to improve their draft lottery odds. Entering Game 80, the Leafs and Panthers have identical .494 points percentages, tying with the Seattle Kraken for fifth worst in the league standings. It’s likely the game’s loser will be in a better position for the May 5 draft lottery.
The Stakes for Toronto
The stakes are particularly high for Toronto. The Leafs only keep their first-round pick this June if it lands inside the top five; otherwise, it goes to the Boston Bruins to complete the Brandon Carlo trade.
Securing a top draft choice would be a small consolation for the Leafs after a disappointing season. It would also increase the organisation’s chances of quickly returning to a competitive window, bringing in a quality young player who could join the existing team or be used in a trade.
The Path to a Top-Five Pick
The Leafs have shown no inclination to manipulate results. However, statistically, the best path forward is undeniable.
- If they climb from their current position by picking up points over the remaining three games, the only avenue to a top-five pick is by winning the lottery for either the No. 1 or No. 2 selection in May.
- The chances of hitting on one of those would likely fall somewhere between 1-in-13 and 1-in-20, depending on their final placing.
- Should the Leafs hold their current level in the standings, they’d retain a path to a top-five pick simply by having the teams below them win those lottery drawings with much better odds.
That’s the best way to keep their pick from ending up in Boston.
Recent Struggles
Losing to a Panthers team that bears little resemblance to the one that hammered the Leafs 6-1 in Game 7 last May is almost essential. Lately, the Leafs have been losing to almost everyone, getting outshot 44-16 while getting beat 5-3 on Long Island on Thursday night.
It’s been a similarly tough run for Florida.