The Los Angeles Lakers are aiming to sweep the Houston Rockets in Game 4 of their first-round series. Los Angeles leads the series 3-0 after a comeback 112-108 overtime win on Friday. No team in NBA postseason history has ever blown a 3-0 series lead.
Rockets Face Uphill Battle
Houston remains without Kevin Durant, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. The Lakers are still without Luka Doncic due to a hamstring issue. Austin Reaves is listed as questionable, suffering from an oblique injury.
The game is set for a 9:30 p.m. ET tipoff at the Toyota Center in Houston. L.A. has won seven straight playoff games against Houston.
Betting Odds Favour Houston
Despite their series deficit, the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook have Houston as a 2.5-point favourite. The over/under for total points scored is 205.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated the game 10,000 times, offering its picks and betting predictions. The model has a strong track record, returning well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons.
The model entered the first full week of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a 24-9 roll (73%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Those following the NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Model Predicts High-Scoring Game
After 10,000 simulations, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (205.5). The Over has hit in one of the three games in this series.
The Over is 4-1 over their last five matchups in Texas and is 7-3 over their last 10 meetings in Houston. The model anticipates a dozen players to score in double-figures, six from each team.
The model calls for the teams to combine for 215 points. The Over hits 58% of the time, making it a good selection for NBA parlay betting.
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time.
After simulating each possession of Rockets vs. Lakers 10,000 times, the SportsLine model has generated NBA picks.