The Minnesota Twins are visiting the Kansas City Royals for an AL Central matchup on Thursday. It’s the final game of a three-game series that started on Monday, with Tuesday as an off day.
Kansas City is currently riding a three-game win streak, having won both games of the series thus far. Minnesota, on the other hand, has lost three in a row and has yet to play a home game.
Pitching Matchup: Ragans vs Bradley
Cole Ragans (0-1, 9.00 ERA) is slated to start for the Royals. Taj Bradley (0-0, 2.08 ERA) will take the mound for the Twins. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
The Royals are the -156 favourite on the money line. The over/under for total runs is 9.5.
Model Favours Under on Total Runs
A computer model simulated the Royals vs. Twins game 10,000 times. The model is projecting that the total runs will be Under 9.5. In 2026, both teams have heavily favoured the Under, combining for a 7-3 record.
This trend continues from last season when both teams often failed to reach the total. Since last year, the Under is 93-72-2 for the Royals and 85-75-7 for the Twins. Over that span, the Royals have hit the Under at the second-highest percentage amongst AL teams, while the Twins have seen the Under hit at the fifth-highest rate.
Pitching Stats Point to Low Scoring Game
The model considered the effectiveness of both starting pitchers when forecasting a lower-scoring game. Bradley gave up just 1 ER in his first start. He has allowed a lone ER in back-to-back outings dating back to last season.
Ragans has a 3.57 ERA since the 2023 season. Only a dozen pitchers in the AL have a lower ERA over that stretch, with a minimum of 300 IP. The model’s 10,000 simulations project 8.6 total runs being scored.
One side of the money line is said to have all the value, according to the model.
The computer model was profitable on top-rated MLB money-line picks last season, going 35-29. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit.