In any Edmonton Oilers playoff series, Connor McDavid is always the most important player. Tasked with stopping him, Jackson LaCombe is the second most important player. He is a big reason that the Anaheim Ducks are one win away from the second round.
LaCombe’s Rise to No. 1 Defenceman
LaCombe’s stock has been steadily rising since his breakout 2024-25 season. That season earned him an eight-year, $72 million extension last summer. After a difficult rookie season, LaCombe took a massive jump, scoring 43 points. He also tilted the ice in the right direction despite playing some of the league’s most difficult minutes.
His puck-moving acumen in all three zones jumped off the page as he began to grow into a legitimate No. 1 defenceman. LaCombe’s growth continued this season, culminating in an invitation to join Team USA in Milan. Although he didn’t play, an inclusion like that amidst such a stacked field speaks volumes.
With 58 points this season and more excellence at five-on-five, LaCombe was a star in the making. The playoffs are where stars are born. That’s exactly what we’re seeing from LaCombe so far and that’s not simply because he has eight points in five games. It’s what he’s doing specifically to the best player in the world, at a time he usually shines brightest, that’s turning heads.
McDavid’s Diminished Impact Against LaCombe
Over McDavid’s past three playoffs, his xG rates were 60 percent last season, 63 percent before that and 58 percent before that. In each playoff run, he generated at least 3 goals-per-60 and 3.25 expected goals-per-60 offensively. Those numbers are roughly in line with what McDavid showed to be capable of during the regular season, too. This year, he had a 56 percent xG rate, 3.29 goals-per-60 and 3.61 expected goals per 60.
That has mostly continued whenever LaCombe has been on the bench during this series. While the Oilers only have one goal in those minutes (1.81 goals-per-60), the chances are there (2.99 expected goals per 60) and McDavid is tilting the ice heavily with 65 percent of expected goals. Classic McDavid.
The problem is that McDavid has only been on the ice for 33 non-LaCombe minutes. In the 51 minutes against LaCombe, it’s been an entirely different story.
Against LaCombe, the Oilers are only generating 1.62 expected goals per 60 with McDavid — roughly half of what he would normally put up. That’s led to a dismal 44 percent xG rate with the Ducks up 4-2 on the scoresheet.
Injury Concerns and a Potential Shift
Some of that may be related to an injury McDavid sustained in Game 2. His worst game against LaCombe was Game 3 (0-3, 22 percent xG) and he did get back on track in Game 5 (1-0, 60 percent xG).
Maybe that means the tide is turning. Maybe.
It’s also worth noting that during the three regular-season matchups between these two teams, LaCombe also got the better of McDavid, leading to the exact same xG rate for the Oilers captain: 44 percent.