Grand National 2026: Spotting Trends to Pick a Winner

The Grand National at Aintree is among the highlights of the British horse racing calendar.

But, with 34 runners, picking the winner can be something of a lottery.

Can the past winners guide you in the right direction? BBC Sport looks at the data to try to find the 2026 winner.

Weight Trends in Past Races

Since 2000 there have been 25 renewals of the race, with no running in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

There is no obvious trend, with winners of the past 25 races carrying between 10st 3lb and 11st 9lb.

If that continues, that would rule out the top six in the field – particularly I Am Maximus, who is attempting to become the first top weight to win since Red Rum carried 12 stone to victory in 1974.

Nine of the past 11 winners have carried between 10st 5lb and 11st 8lb, which may help you to reduce the field a little.

Looking across the past 25 runnings, the average weight of the winner is between 10st 12lb and 10st 13lb. Those specific weights have a combined three winners, while 11st 6lb has been the most successful individual weight with three victories.

Age as a Factor

This is where the trends – certainly in recent years – become a bit easier to spot.

No horse aged 10 or above has won the race since 2014, while in 2022 Noble Yeats bucked another trend by becoming the first seven-year-old to win the race since Bogskar in 1940.

Based on that, the date suggests horses aged eight or nine are the ones to focus on.

Aside from Noble Yeats’ victory, the other races in the past 10 years have been won by six eight-year-olds and three nine-year-olds, with one of the latter being Tiger Roll coming back to win it again in 2019.

Price Considerations for Potential Winners

The shortest-priced winner was Tiger Roll at 4-1 in 2019, when he became the first back-to-back victor since Red Rum in the 1970s.

The biggest price was Mon Mome in 2009 (100-1), with last year’s winner – Nick Rockett – going off at 33-1.

The average price of the winner this century has been just under 24-1, so with that – and the fact eight winners have been priced 33-1 or higher – don’t let bigger odds put you off.

That said, the average price does drop in the past 10 renewals, with the winner 11-1 or shorter on five occasions.

Six favourites (including joint favourites) have won the race this century, with three of those in the past six – including I Am Maximus in 2024.

The favourite or a joint-favourite has also finished in the top five on a further 12 occasions since 2000.

The Grand National is a unique test of stamina and has very different fences to other races over the season.

In its past 15 runnings, the

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