The 2026 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park in South Florida is set to feature three of the top four favourites for the Kentucky Derby. Chief Wallabee, Commandment, and Nearly, who all closed among the top choices in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, are preparing to compete. A win in the Florida Derby could establish one of them as the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby on May 2.
Florida Derby Odds and Favourites
Chief Wallabee has been installed as the 2-1 morning-line favourite for Saturday’s Florida Derby. Commandment follows with 5-2 odds, and Nearly is listed at 3-1. The Puma rounds out the top four choices in the odds at 9-2. Redland Rebels is expected to scratch.
Post time for the Florida Derby is scheduled for 6:42 p.m. ET. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in the high-70s around post time, with a chance of showers.
Expert Analysis of the Florida Derby
Gene Menez, a horse racing expert, has handicapped the 2026 Florida Derby field and revealed his picks. Menez previously worked at Sports Illustrated as a reporter and editor, covering horse racing for almost 14 years. He correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.
In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta. In 2017, he tweeted his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4. In 2024, Menez identified Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby.
Menez’s Past Successes
- In 2024 he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 windfall.
- Last year he nailed the winner, trifecta and superfecta in the Florida Derby for a $529.60 score and the winner and trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes for a $761.96 jackpot.
- Hit the late Pick 4 on Kentucky Oaks day for $915.48.
- In the Kentucky Derby, he hammered the exacta and trifecta for a $1,045 payout.
- Just last month, on Fountain of Youth day, he struck big, hitting the late Pick 5 for $4,648.
Menez’s Top Pick
Menez’s top pick for the 2026 Florida Derby is not Chief Wallabee, despite the horse being the 2-1 favourite. He believes the price is too short for him to make.