The FA Cup quarter-finals are upon us, with eight teams vying for a place in the semi-finals at Wembley. The fixtures include Manchester City vs Liverpool, Chelsea vs Port Vale, Southampton vs Arsenal and West Ham vs Leeds.
Liverpool’s Quarter-Final Challenge Against Manchester City
Liverpool face a significant challenge against Manchester City. The market views Liverpool as a 3/1 chance to win in 90 minutes. It’s considered a fair assessment of their chances in a tie that Manchester City should progress from.
Liverpool fans and the hierarchy need to see some big performances and results. Otherwise Arne Slot is going to face serious pressure.
Betting Strategy: Low-Scoring First Halves
A betting strategy that could be considered is backing low-scoring first halves. The long-term data support a drop in first-half goal averages in games after an international break. Across the last 10 seasons in the Premier League it drops from 1.3 goals per first half across all games to around 1.1 per first half after an international break.
There is logic behind these numbers, too, as players have been travelling around the world so could be a little fatigued in the first game back. Breaks also disrupt rhythm from a player and managerial tactical point of view.
For example, after the first international break in September, 25 of the last 50 Premier League games have been 0-0 at half-time. Slot’s Liverpool away from home can be a very stale and safe team in first halves, too. Liverpool have scored just three first-half goals in their last 15 away days.
Chelsea vs Port Vale: A Potential Upset?
Port Vale are 28/1 to win this match in 90 minutes. It would be one of the biggest upsets in FA Cup history if League One’s bottom side could somehow dispatch Chelsea.
Chelsea have a big discipline problem. Only Tottenham and Brighton have been shown more yellow cards in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (71) and no club have had more players sent off than the Blues (7). Such is the gigantic mismatch between the teams, Chelsea’s card expectancy is low in this game, with 7/4 with Sky Bet on offer from them to pick up over 1.5 cards.
These FA Cup quarter-final matches promise excitement and potential upsets as teams battle for a place at Wembley.