Analysing the Champions League Contenders
With the Champions League bracket set, focus shifts to predicting the potential winner. An analysis of the remaining teams has been conducted, drawing comparisons with past champions. Data from Opta and Stats Perform has been used to assess the contenders.
The teams that have won the past 10 UEFA Champions League titles are Real Madrid, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain.
The ‘Silver Path’ vs. the ‘Blue Path’
UEFA has divided the bracket into two paths, the ‘Silver Path’ and the ‘Blue Path’. The ‘Silver Path’ features teams that have collectively won 31 Champions League titles and finished second 15 times. Only one of these teams will reach the final this season.
The ‘Blue Path’ teams last won a title in 2015. These teams have a combined five European Cups and nine second-place finishes. Apart from Barcelona, no one else on that side of the bracket has a single Champions League trophy.
Adjusted Goals and Eliminated Teams
The analysis uses a metric called ‘adjusted goals’, a blend of 70% expected goals (xG) and 30% actual goals. This is considered a better measure of performance than goals alone. A benchmark is set by the Chelsea side that won the Champions League in 2012, averaging 1.61 adjusted goals per game.
Several teams have been eliminated from contention based on this threshold. Atlético Madrid, Atalanta, Newcastle, and Tottenham fall below the required adjusted goals per game. Sporting Lisbon, Galatasaray, and Bodo/Glimt have also been removed, as no team outside of Europe’s Big Five top leagues has reached the final in the past 15 seasons.
- Atletico Madrid: 1.58 adjusted goals per game.
- Atalanta: 1.52 adjusted goals per game.
- Newcastle: 1.52 adjusted goals per game.
- Tottenham: 1.13 adjusted goals per game.
The Potential for a First-Time Winner
With the bracket split the way it is, there is a chance for a first-time winner. Arsenal are sizable betting favorites to win the whole thing. However, their odds are still way lower than 50%.
The way the bracket fell this year has seriously opened up the possibility for it to happen again.
Last year we got a first-time winner.