The Boston Celtics have the opportunity to take control of their first-round series against the Philadelphia 76ers. Up 2-1, they would like to sweep two games in Philadelphia.
The Sixers should be desperate, having lost home-court advantage after Game 3.
Embiid’s Possible Return
Joel Embiid’s status is a major point of discussion. He has missed the first three games of this series, recovering from an appendectomy. He was listed as doubtful on the initial Game 4 injury report.
The Sixers were 11-10 with Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Embiid all in the lineup, including just 5-7 against playoff teams. The Sixers were at their best in the regular season with Embiid on the floor, with the bigger impact coming on offense.
Even when limited, Embiid can improve the Sixers. Over his seven postseasons, the Sixers have been 17.1 points per 100 possessions better with Embiid on the floor than they’ve been with him off the floor.
Sixers playoff efficiency, 2018-2024:
- OffRtg = Team’s points scored per 100 possessions
- DefRtg = Team’s points allowed per 100 possessions
- NetRtg = Team’s point differential per 100 possessions
Embiid played in two games against the Celtics this season, but both of those were in October. He had 20 points in the Sixers’ home loss on Halloween and four points in their opening-night win in Boston.
The Importance of Perimeter Shooting
All three games in this series have been won by the team with the better 3-point shooting.
Perimeter shooting is especially important for the Celtics. They have taken only 33% of their shots in the paint, what would be the second lowest rate for any team in any playoff series in the last 15 years. They were the jump-shootingest team in the regular season, and they’ve been even more so in the playoffs.
The Sixers took only 32 of their 90 shots in the paint in Game 2, when Maxey and VJ Edgecombe were a combined 11-for-22 from 3-point range. They dominated the paint in Games 1 and 3, but that success was trumped by the Celtics shooting from deep.
In all three games, the winning team has shot better from 3-point range than expected, given the quality of their shots.