The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are set to play a Game 7. This is the ninth time the two teams have gone to seven games in their 23 playoff series.
Celtics’ Offensive Fluctuations
The Celtics’ offense has seen a wide variance between wins and losses. They have scored 28 more points per 100 possessions in their three wins (129.1) than they have in their three losses (101.1).
The difference between the Celtics’ wins and the Sixers’ wins in this series has been much bigger on Boston’s end of the floor. It starts with 3-point shooting, with the Celtics having shot better than 36% from beyond the arc in all three wins and below 30% in all three losses. Game 6 was also the Celtics’ worst of the series in regard to free throw rate, going just 9-for-16 from the line, and offensive rebounding percentage (16.7%).
Embiid’s Defensive Role and Tatum’s Absence
Joel Embiid has been the screener’s defender on 62 ball-screens set for Jayson Tatum. That’s the seventh most common ball-handler-screener-defender combination in these playoffs, even though Embiid has played in only three of the six games.
However, Jayson Tatum has been ruled out due to left knee soreness. A ball-screen for Tatum, directed at Embiid, has been the primary action for the last few games. The Celtics have scored 1.14 points per possessions when one of those ball-screens has led directly to a shot, turnover or trip to the line.
Overall, the Celtics scored just 93 points on 100 possessions in Game 6. We could’ve expected Tatum to attack him more in Game 7, but the responsibility now falls to the rest of the squad.
Sixers’ First-Quarter Struggles
The Sixers have struggled in the first quarter throughout the series. They have scored just 85.7 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter.
That’s the worst first-quarter mark for any team in these playoffs and, by far, the worst mark for either of these teams in any quarter. The Sixers scored 25 points on 23 first-quarter possessions in Game 2, but have otherwise scored no more than a point per possession in any of the other five first quarters.
Looking Ahead to the Conference Semis
The Celtics were seemingly in control, up 3-1 and leading by 13 points in the second half of Game 5. They were looking like the best team in the East and were on their way to the conference semifinals for the ninth time in the last 10 years. But they’ve scored just 104 points over their last 123 offensive possessions (85 per 100) and their season is now on the line.
The Sixers have been a wild card all season, never healthy or consistent for an extended stretch, but always capable of playing like one of the best teams in the league. They’re now down to one game for a trip to the conference semis, where the New York Knicks are waiting.