Manchester United have won 10 of 14 games under Michael Carrick this season. Since caretaker boss Michael Carrick took over in January, Manchester United have won the most points in the Premier League. This might suggest giving him the job on a permanent basis is a no-brainer.
However, digging a little deeper suggests that the decision is not so obvious. The stats warn that, as brilliant as results have been, they’re unlikely to continue in the long run.
United’s Hot Streak: Unsustainable?
On the surface everything looks hunky-dory under Carrick. As well as his side taking the most points during his tenure, only Arsenal have a better goal difference, with no team scoring more goals.
United’s attack has been running blisteringly hot under their former midfielder, which is obviously fantastic in the short term, but slightly worrying for the future when it inevitably cools down.
Eight teams have been better at creating chances based on expected goals. Having the best shot conversion rate in the league means United have scored seven more goals than a team historically would from the chances they’ve had – more than any other side.
Looking at attack and defence overall, the only side to have overperformed their xG numbers by more than United since Carrick took charge are Nottingham Forest, who are enjoying their own ‘new manager bounce’ under Vitor Pereira.
Of the six players who’ve been the most clinical in the Premier League since Carrick took over in mid-January, three of them play for his team. Only Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White has been more ruthless with his finishing than Matheus Cunha, while Benjamin Sesko and Casemiro have also been enjoying a hot spell in front of goal recently.
While Carrick deserves credit for getting his players firing, will the six players below remain the best finishers in the Premier League forever? It’s unlikely.
Efficiency in Both Boxes
If we compare United’s stats under Carrick with those under Amorim earlier this season, we can see that improving the team’s efficiency in both boxes is what has brought about such an upturn in results, perhaps due to his man-management of the players.
Not only have United’s attackers been efficient under him, but goalkeeper Senne Lammens has too, with only Bournemouth’s Djordje Petrovic and Forest’s Matz Sels preventing more goals than expected, given the shots they’ve faced, than the Belgian keeper since Carrick took charge.
Dominating Games Less
It’s also true United have dominated games less than they did under Amorim, taking two shots fewer per game under Carrick and conceding slightly more.
That’s not actually that damning as it’s worth remembering United were doing quite well when their Portuguese boss was sacked as they were sixth in the Premier League, level on points with fifth-placed Chelsea and just three behind Liverpool in fourth.
But while results have improved significantly under Carrick thanks to how ‘hot’ the team have been at both ends of the pitch, overall performances have not been as impressive under the caretaker boss when it comes t