Mike Trout, the 34-year-old baseball player, is showing some worrying signs. His swing speed is down and he’s squaring the ball up less frequently. He’s also running a lower hard-hit rate and a higher infield fly ball rate.
Despite this, he is off to a scorching start. He’s slashing .261/.485/.522, good for a 192 wRC+.
Trout’s Increased Walk Rate
The most obvious change in Trout’s statistics this year is that he’s walking 30% of the time. Walks have always been a part of Trout’s game. He has a keen eye at the plate and makes enough contact to grind his way back into at-bats. But 30% is double his career rate.
Trout hasn’t changed the way he starts at-bats that much. On the first pitch, he’ll swing if you make him, but he wants to either drive a pitch he’s hunting or take a pitch he wasn’t expecting. It’s a great plan if you have a good eye for balls and strikes.
Pitchers are starting Trout off with strikes half the time, right in line with league average and what they’ve generally done against him, and he’s swinging as often as ever.
Adapting When Behind in the Count
When he falls behind, Trout has always been an adaptive hitter. He expands the zone, but not recklessly so.
Trout swings around 20% of the time – 18% this year – at chase pitches when down in the count. The league swings at around 30% of them. This means that he gets back into counts quite frequently.
Dominating When Ahead in the Count
The real bonanza comes when Trout gets even or ahead. When he’s on the defensive, he applies his keen batting eye to work his way back to even. When he’s attacking, though, he adeptly tunes out everything except the pitch he’s looking to drive.
If you’re trying to beat Trout when he’s ahead in the count, you’ll pretty much have to do it in the strike zone, because he’s just not going to expand. He hasn’t swung at a single pitch in the chase or waste zones this year when he’s ahead in the count. He’s on