Franz Wagner is poised to make his return for the Orlando Magic after an extended period on the sidelines. He has missed every game since the All-Star break, a total of 47 of the last 51 games, due to a high ankle sprain and subsequent complications during his recovery. This return offers a significant boost to the Magic.
However, expectations should be tempered for his first game back. Wagner is expected to have limited minutes. It is likely to be similar to the four games he returned for previously. He should not be expected to dominate the game immediately, regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench.
Wagner’s Impact and Minute Restriction
This season, Wagner has averaged 21.3 points per game, with shooting splits of 47.9/36.5/82.8. Before his injury, the Magic had a +2.7 net rating with Wagner on the floor, including a 114.2 offensive rating and 111.4 defensive rating. With Wagner on the court, the Magic have a +1.7 net rating overall, featuring a 114.0 offensive rating and a 112.3 defensive rating.
During the four games Wagner played after his initial injury, he averaged 12.8 points in 22.8 minutes per game, shooting 39.1 percent from the floor. In his return game in Berlin, Wagner scored 18 points on 6-for-16 shooting. He made several crucial shots down the stretch to secure the win. Against the Milwaukee Bucks, he had 14 points on 6-for-10 shooting.
Wagner’s return should give the team an initial energy boost whenever he is on the court. The question is whether it will be enough for the Magic to win.
Turnover Troubles for Orlando
The Orlando Magic have been struggling with turnovers in their last two games. Turnovers were a significant factor in the 31-0 run against the Toronto Raptors, with 12 turnovers during that stretch. In their win against the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday, they committed 25 turnovers, leading to 18 points for the Suns.
The Magic are currently 10th in the league in turnover rate at 13.8 percent. However, in the last 15 games, their turnover rate has increased to 14.7 percent.
This is resulting in lost possessions for a team that needs to protect the ball. Orlando’s average of points allowed off turnovers has risen from 16.8 points per game for the season to 18.7 points per game in the last 15 games.
Hawks’ Defensive Upturn
The Atlanta Hawks are capitalising on turnovers, benefiting from their improved defensive performance and enhanced offensive flow and spacing.
The Hawks currently lead the league in points off turnovers, averaging 24.9 points per game in the last 15 games. They also force a turnover rate of 17.4 percent.
Suggs Under Pressure
The Magic need to limit turnovers in this game. The Hawks will put the Magic under pressure.
This places significant pressure on Jalen Suggs. As the point guard, he exerts considerable control over the offense. He has demonstrated both defensive intensity and improved playmaking skills.
However, he has also been prone to turnovers and poor decision-making. These contrasting aspects often manifest within the same game.
Suggs scored 20 points and had a +15 rating in Tuesday’s game, along with seven assists. But he also had six turnovers. Many of those were particularly poor.
In the Magic’s last nine games, Suggs is averaging 12.3 points per game and 4.9 assists per game.
The key to the game is whether the Magic can avoid excessive turnovers.