Everton prepare to face Chelsea at Goodison Park, looking to improve their recent record against the London side. Chelsea are hoping to achieve a league double over the Toffees for the first time in several years. Recent form and historical data suggest an intriguing contest.
Everton’s Home Advantage and Scoring Woes
Everton’s home form against Chelsea offers some encouragement for the Toffees. They have only lost one of their last eight Premier League home games against Chelsea, a 1-0 defeat in August 2022. However, Everton have struggled to score against Chelsea in recent encounters, failing to find the net in their last four Premier League games. In fact, they have drawn a blank in 28 Premier League meetings with the Blues, only doing so more against Manchester United (29).
Following their 2-0 win against Burnley, Everton are aiming to win consecutive Premier League games at the Hill Dickinson Stadium for the first time. The last time they achieved this feat was back in April 2015. Statistically, Everton have made fewer changes to their starting XI compared to most teams. Only Crystal Palace (48) and Nottingham Forest (46) have made fewer changes than Everton (50), and the Toffees have used fewer different players than any other side (22).
Chelsea’s Inconsistent Form and Attacking Potential
Chelsea’s recent form has been inconsistent, having lost two of their last three Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 13. After keeping a clean sheet in their first league game under Liam Rosenior, the Blues have conceded in each of their last eight. Chelsea have made a league-high 96 changes to their starting XI in the Premier League this season, exceeding their total from the previous season (95).
Despite their defensive vulnerabilities, Chelsea’s attacking statistics highlight their potential. They have a non-penalty xG of 52.8 in the Premier League this season, the highest in the league. However, their actual non-penalty goal tally stands at 46, indicating that they have underperformed their expected goals by 6.8. João Pedro has been a key player for Chelsea away from home, being involved in eight goals in his last eight appearances (7 goals, 1 assist). His 11 away goals in all competitions this season is the most by a Chelsea player in a campaign since 2019-20 (Tammy Abraham, 12).
Key Players to Watch
James Garner has been a standout player for Everton this season. He has made a combined 138 tackles (89) and interceptions (49) in the Premier League, more than any other player. Garner also leads all Everton players for chances created (43) and successful passes (1,213), while only Jack Grealish (6) has more assists (5).
Cole Palmer has found his scoring touch away from home for Chelsea. With a hat-trick at Wolves and a goal at Aston Villa, Palmer has scored more goals in his last two league games outside of London (4) than he had in his previous 24 (3).
As both teams prepare to face off, Chelsea will aim to convert their xG into goals while Everton will rely on their home support and the defensive capabilities of Garner.