After 96 games, the World Cup is now down to eight teams, representing a mix of traditional powers, rising programmes, and recently reliable squads. Four of these remaining eight nations are former champions, comprising Argentina, England, France, and Spain. The other four teams in contention seek to become the second new winner this century, following Spain’s victory in 2010.
Geographic Representation and Repeat Performers
For the third straight World Cup tournament, over half of the quarterfinalists hail from Europe. By contrast, CONMEBOL has only a single quarterfinalist for the first time since 2002, a year when Brazil notably won the title. Africa has now secured consecutive World Cup quarterfinalists for the first time.
Morocco, in particular, is the first African nation to reach any two World Cup quarterfinals. Four teams competing in these quarterfinals are repeat participants from four years ago. France has made four straight quarterfinals, establishing the longest active streak in the competition.
England has reached three quarterfinals in a row, while both Argentina and Morocco are here for a second consecutive World Cup tournament.
- Four of the eight quarterfinalists are former champions.
- Over half of the quarterfinalists originate from Europe.
- Africa has achieved consecutive World Cup quarterfinalists.
- France holds the longest active streak with four straight quarterfinals.
France Tops the Power Rankings
Yahoo Sports has established a simple order of how likely each team is to win the tournament. This ranking combines assessments of team quality with their prospective path ahead in the competition. France maintains its top spot in these power rankings.
The author considered dropping France a spot or two for only beating Paraguay 1-0 on a penalty in the Round of 16. However, none of the other top-tier teams posted convincing wins in that round, leading France to retain the premier position. France was not particularly threatened against Paraguay, holding 75% possession and outshooting them 15-5.
Generating only 0.7 non-penalty expected goals was not ideal for France, but the good news is that none of the remaining teams are expected to play as defensively or negatively as Paraguay did. A question remains over how France will fare against a team that can better control the midfield, such as Spain. Despite this, there is trust in France’s talented quartet up top to figure out challenges, and France could still easily hang three goals on anyone. The author is not as comfortable making that statement about any other team.
Spain’s Defensive Solidity and Attacking Concerns
Spain holds the second spot in the power rankings after requiring a stoppage-time goal to defeat Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16. Despite recording its lowest possession of the tournament, at 55% against Portugal, Spain still managed to create the better chances, registering 1.7 expected goals (xG) compared to Portugal’s 0.6 xG.
The Spanish side is the only team yet to concede a goal in this tournament. They have conceded a total of 29 shots, which ranks as the second-fewest among all knockout-stage teams. Furthermore, Spain has maintained the lowest shot quality against them in the tournament, measured at 0.05 expected goals (xG) per shot. This figure is less than half the tournament average.
The strength of this defense, notably stemming from an excellent press, prompted the author to consider Spain for the premier position in the power rankings. However, the team’s attack has not yet proven as convincing. Spain ranks second in shots among the quarterfinalists, yet they are seventh in average shot quality.
The offence has appeared a bit more dynamic with Lamine Yamal back in the team, but it currently lacks balance due to Nico Williams still being absent from the other wing. A factor in Spain’s ranking is their bracket placement; the author might have placed Spain first had they been on the other half of the bracket. With a higher-ceiling France team most likely waiting in the semifinals, Spain consequently remains second in the power rankings.
Argentina had the easiest path to the quarterfinals.