The Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds, both vying for a spot in the MLB playoffs, are set to conclude their series. The Phillies will start Aaron Nola, while the Reds will counter with Andrew Abbott.
Nola and Abbott Face Off
Aaron Nola (2-3, 5.91 ERA) will take the mound for Philadelphia. Andrew Abbott (3-2, 4.21 ERA) is the Reds’ starting pitcher. The game is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
Philadelphia is the favourite with a -156 money line. The over/under is set at 9.5.
Computer Model’s Prediction
A SportsLine Projection Model simulated the game 10,000 times. The model is on a 12-1 run on all top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at making home run prop picks in 2025, returning nearly 30 units of profit.
The model predicts the teams will combine for under 9.5 runs. It projects a total of 8.7 combined runs. The model believes in the pitchers, as Abbott is 2-0 with a 0.54 ERA in three May starts, while Nola has been better at home and in day games.
Betting Odds and Trends
- Philadelphia is a -156 favourite on the money line.
- The over/under is 9.5.
- The Over has hit in nearly 64% of Reds games this season.
- The Over is 13-4 on totals of nine runs or higher in Reds games.
The Phillies’ bullpen has a 3.00 ERA in May. The model indicates one side of the money line has all the value.
The Phillies and Reds both rank in the top six in home runs this MLB season. Both teams rank in the bottom-half in scoring overall.
The model has locked in its picks and MLB predictions, advising to visit SportsLine to see them.