Cheltenham Novices’ Hurdle: Rating the Top Contenders

This season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is considered among the best in recent years. With Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba in the Arkle, many will agree on the strength of that race. A definitive standard for each contender can be given.

Calculating the Hurdle Standard

By comparing the pre-race Racing Post Ratings of each first-three finisher in the last ten years, a standard for winners can be determined. The rating every contender needs to have reached to be placed in an average running can also be calculated.

All Racing Post Ratings are adjusted to 12st over jumps. In order to calculate the pre-race standard, the adjustment must be removed.

Kopek Des Bordes’ Rating

Last season’s Supreme winner Kopek Des Bordes had an adjusted pre-race RPR of 162. That is 155 when unadjusted, because he carried 11st 7lb.

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