Tigers Forced Into Late Pitching Change
The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers are set to begin a three-game series. The teams are entering the series on different trajectories, with Boston (13-21) having lost five of their last six games. Detroit (18-17) have won four of their last five.
A pitching change sees Tyler Holton (0-1, 5.27 ERA) replacing two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.70) for the Tigers. Skubal was scratched from today’s start and will have elbow surgery. The Red Sox will start with Payton Tolle (0-1, 3.38 ERA).
Betting Odds Shift After Skubal’s Absence
The Tigers vs. Red Sox odds have shifted. Boston are now the slight -110 favourite, with Detroit at -109, after the Tigers were originally heavy favourites. The over/under is 8.
A SportsLine Projection Model simulated the game 10,000 times. The model is coming off a 5-0 week on top-rated MLB picks and returned nearly 30 units of profit on home run prop picks in 2025.
Model Favours High Scoring Game
After 10,000 simulations, the model is going Over 8 combined runs. The line opened at 7, but went up a full run after Skubal was scratched.
SportsLine’s model projects 2.0 total bases or more for Red Sox catcher Willson Contreras, and 1.5 total bases for five Tigers players, including Jahmal Jones (1.78) and Dillon Dingler (1.74). The model projects 9.3 combined runs as the Over hits in 54% of simulations.
- Red Sox now slight favourites
- The over/under is 8
- SportsLine model projects 9.3 combined runs
First pitch is at 6:10 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit.