Marcell Ozuna was meant to be the final piece in improving the Pittsburgh Pirates’ offence. The veteran slugger was brought in to provide power, but his arrival carried risks. Ozuna’s defensive limitations made the Pirates’ defence even more questionable.
The returns from the lineup have been mixed, but Ozuna has struggled significantly. Through 10 games, he is slashing .051/.159/.051 with no homers. He has taken responsibility for his poor start.
Andrew McCutchen has performed well early on, suggesting that Pittsburgh might have made the wrong choice when they moved on from him.
Underlying Data Suggests a Rebound
The inclination might be to panic, but underlying data suggests that Ozuna will progress back up to the mean. Metrics such as bat speed, chase rate, and whiff rate in 2026 are nearly identical to his averages from 2023 to 2025. The production from Ozuna varied drastically from 2023 and 2024 to 2025.
His average bat speed has declined slightly, falling from about two miles per hour since 2023. An average of roughly 73 mph is still enough to do damage, but it’s not as potent as his peak.
Ozuna was more productive when he whiffed and chased more frequently. His 2025 plate discipline numbers are better than the previous two years, though that was his worst season overall. This year’s results haven’t been as good as 2025, but they’re still a hair better than 2023 and certainly 2024.
Type of Contact Hindering Production
The biggest hindrance to Ozuna’s production has been the type of contact he’s making. From 2023 through 2025, he hit flyballs at about a 40% rate. This year, that rate has zoomed up to 57.1%, with an 18.8% rate of popups in the infield, versus an 8.9% rate for his career. Alongside that, he’s only pulled the ball 21.4% of the time, versus a 42% rate for his career.
That would suggest that he’s late on pitches and therefore not making solid contact, though he still has more than enough bat speed to get around on even the highest-velocity offerings. Timing, rather than an erosion of skill, would then be the primary issue and is something that he should be able to work out.
Analytically, it’s pretty clear that Ozuna will bounce back, but the real q